Estimating the impact of fuel-switching between liquid fuels and electricity under electricity-sector carbon-pricing schemes

J. Dowds, P. D. Hines, and S. Blumsack

Socio-economic Planning Sciences (June 2013)

DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2012.09.004

Switching from liquid fuels to electricity in the transportation and heating sectors can result in greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These reductions are maximized when electricity-sector carbon emissions are constrained through policy measures. We use a linear optimization, generation expansion/dispatch model to evaluate the impact of increased electricity demand for plug-in electric vehicle charging on the generating portfolio, overall generating fuel mix, and the costs of electricity generation. We apply this model to the PJM Interconnect and ISO-New England Regional Transmission Organization service areas assuming a CO2 pricing scheme that is applied to the electricity sector but does not directly regulate emissions from other sectors. We find that a shift from coal toward natural gas and wind generation is sufficient to achieve a 50

keywords: Fuel switching; Cap-and-trade; Electric vehicles; Dispatch; Capacity expansion; NHTS

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