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[473] Helgeson, C, RE Nicholas, K Keller, CE Forest and N Tuana (2022): Attention to values helps shape convergence research, Climatic Change, 170, 17, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03274-y.


[472] Errickson, FC, K Keller, WD Collins, V Srikrishnan and D Anthoff (2021): Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty, Nature, 592, 564-570, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03386-6.
[471] Lafferty, DC, RL Sriver, I Haqiqi, TW Hertel, K Keller and RE Nicholas (2021): Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 1-10, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00266-9.
[470] Sharma, S, BS Lee, RE Nicholas and K Keller (2021): A safety factor approach to designing urban infrastructure for dynamic conditions, Earths Future, 9, DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002118.
[469] Sharma, S, M Gomez, K Keller, RE Nicholas and A Mejia (2021): Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22, 2259-2274, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0238.1.
[468] Srikrishnan, V and K Keller (2021): Small increases in agent-based model complexity can result in large increases in required calibration data, Environmental Modelling & Software, 138, 104978, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104978.
[467] Ye, H, RE Nicholas, S Roth and K Keller (2021): Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections, PLoS ONE, 16, e0259180, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259180.
[466] Zarekarizi, M, KJ Roop-Eckart, S Sharma and K Keller (2021): The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication, Water, 13, 666, DOI: 10.3390/w13050666.


[465] Hadjimichael, A, PM Reed and JD Quinn (2020): Navigating Deeply Uncertain Tradeoffs in Harvested Predator-Prey Systems, Complexity, 2020, DOI: 10.1155/2020/4170453.
[464] Hoffman, AL, AR Kemanian and CE Forest (2020): The response of maize, sorghum, and soybean yield to growing-phase climate revealed with machine learning, Environmental Research Letters, 15, 094013, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7b22.
[463] Lee, BS, M Haran, RW Fuller, D Pollard and K Keller (2020): A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 14, 605-634, DOI: 10.1214/19-AOAS1305.
[462] Tsai, CY, CE Forest and D Pollard (2020): The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise, Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05354-8.
[461] Zarekarizi, M, V Srikrishnan and K Keller (2020): Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks, Nature Communications, 11, 5361, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19188-9.


[460] Ceres, RL, CE Forest and K Keller (2019): Optimization of multiple storm surge risk mitigation strategies for an island City On a Wedge, Environmental Modelling & Software, 119, 341-353, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.011.
[459] Coronese, M, F Lamperti, K Keller, F Chiaromonte and A Roventini (2019): Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 21450-21455, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1907826116.
[458] Ho, E, DV Budescu, V Bosetti, DP van Vuuren and K Keller (2019): Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment, Climatic Change, 155, 545-561, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02500-y.
[457] Hogan, E, RE Nicholas, K Keller, S Eilts and RL Sriver (2019): Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles, Journal of Climate, 32, 2591-2603, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0075.1.
[456] Lamontagne, JR, PM Reed, G Marangoni, K Keller and GG Garner (2019): Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action, Nature Climate Change, 9, 290-294, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8.
[455] Libardoni, AG, CE Forest, AP Sokolov and E Monier (2019): Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 10000-10007, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082442.
[454] Olson, R, , L Ruckert, W Chang, K Keller, M Haran and SI An (2019): Stilt: Easy Emulation of Time Series AR(1) Computer Model Output in Multidimensional Parameter Space, DOI: 10.32614/rj-2018-049.
[453] Oprean, D, C Spence, M Simpson, R Miller, S Bansal, K Keller and A Klippel (2019): Human Interpretation of Trade-Off Diagrams in Multi-Objective Problems: Implications for Developing Interactive Decision Support Systems, DOI: 10.24251/HICSS.2019.189.
[452] Perz, SG (2019): Collaboration Across Boundaries for Social-Ecological Systems Science: Experiences Around the World,
[451] Ruckert, KL, V Srikrishnan and K Keller (2019): Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA, Scientific Reports, 9, 11373, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-47587-6.
[450] Srikrishnan, V, Y Guan, RS Tol and K Keller (2019): Fossil fuel resources, decarbonization, and economic growth drive the feasibility of Paris climate targets, arXiv [stat.AP],
[449] Vega‐Westhoff, B, RL Sriver, CA Hartin, TE Wong and K Keller (2019): Impacts of Observational Constraints Related to Sea Level on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity, Earth's Future, 7, 677-690, DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001082.
[448] Wong, TE, Y Cui, DL Royer and K Keller (2019): Evidence for higher Earth-system sensitivity from long-term carbon-cycle observations, arXiv [physics.geo-ph],


[447] Garner, GG and K Keller (2018): Using direct policy search to identify robust strategies in adapting to uncertain sea-level rise and storm surge, Environmental Modelling & Software, 107, 96-104, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.006.
[446] Hermes, C, K Keller, RE Nicholas, G Segelbacher and HM Schaefer (2018): Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet, PLoS One, 13, e0191773, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191773.
[445] Lempert, RJ, G Marangoni, K Keller and J Duke (2018): Is Climate Restoration an Appropriate Climate Policy Goal?,
[444] Moore, FC, J Rising, N Lollo, C Springer, V Vasquez, A Dolginow, C Hope and D Anthoff (2018): Mimi-PAGE, an open-source implementation of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model, Scientific Data, 5, 180187, DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.187.
[443] Morris, J, V Srikrishnan, M Webster and J Reilly (2018): Hedging Strategies: Electricity Investment Decisions under Policy Uncertainty, Energy Journal, DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.jmor.
[442] Oyler, JW and RE Nicholas (2018): Time of observation adjustments to daily station precipitation may introduce undesired statistical issues, International Journal of Climatology, 38, e364-e377, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5377.
[441] Quinn, JD, PM Reed, M Giuliani, A Castelletti, JW Oyler and RE Nicholas (2018): Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production and Agricultural Water Supply, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1029/2018WR022743.
[440] Singh, R, JD Quinn, PM Reed and K Keller (2018): Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point, PLoS One, 13, e0191768, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768.
[439] Spence, C and B Casey (2018): Decision Analytic Approach to Resolving Divergent Climate Assumptions in Water Resources Planning, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 144, 04018054, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000939.
[438] Srikrishnan, VA (2018): Markov-Switching Models for Probabilistic Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting, Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University,
[437] Sriver, RL, RJ Lempert, P Wikman-Svahn and K Keller (2018): Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions, PLoS One, 13, e0190641, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190641.
[436] Tuana, N (2018): The Ethical Dimensions of Geoengineering: Solar Radiation Management through Sulphate Particle Injection, In Geoengineering our Climate? Ethics, Politics, and Governance, [JJ Blackstock, and S Low (eds)], Routledge,
[435] Wong, T, A Klufas, V Srikrishnan and K Keller (2018): Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard, Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d.
[434] Wong, TE (2018): An integration and assessment of multiple covariates of nonstationary storm surge statistical behavior by Bayesian model averaging, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 4, 53-63, DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-4-53-2018.


[433] Adler, M, D Anthoff, V Bosetti, G Garner, K Keller and N Treich (2017): Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon, Nature Climate Change, 7, 443-449, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3298.
[432] Bakker, AMR, TE Wong, KL Ruckert and K Keller (2017): Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Nature Scientific Reports, 7, 3880, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5.
[431] Baldwin, D, S Manfreda, K Keller and EA Smithwick (2017): Predicting root zone soil moisture with soil properties and satellite near-surface moisture data across the conterminous United States, Journal of Hydrology, 546, 393-404, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.020.
[430] Berg, N, D Knopman, BF Hobbs, K Keller and RE Nicholas (2017): Resilience to a Changing Climate in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, RAND Perspectives,
[429] Bessette, DL, LA Mayer, B Cwik, M Vezér, K Keller, RJ Lempert and N Tuana (2017): Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management, Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12743.
[428] Cropper, ML, RG Newell, M Allen, M Auffhammer, CE Forest, IY Fung, J Hammitt, HD Jacoby, R Kopp, W Pizer, S Rose, R Schmalensee, JP Weyant, J Heimberg, CJ Wichman and M Ghitelman (2017): Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide, Report, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, DOI: 10.17226/24651.
[427] Fuller, RW, TE Wong and K Keller (2017): Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses, PLoS One, 12, e0190115, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190115.
[426] Haran, M, W Chang, K Keller, R Nicholas and D Pollard (2017): Statistics and the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Chance, 30, 37-44, DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1406758.
[425] Lee, BS, M Haran and K Keller (2017): Multi-decadal scale detection time for potentially increasing Atlantic storm surges in a warming climate, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074606.
[424] Mayer, LA, K Loa, B Cwik, N Tuana, K Keller, C Gonnerman, AM Parker and RJ Lempert (2017): Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models, Global Environmental Change, 42, 107-116, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.007.
[423] Oddo, PC, BS Lee, GG Garner, V Srikrishnan, PM Reed, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management, Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12888.
[422] Quinn, JD, PM Reed and K Keller (2017): Direct policy search for robust multi-objective management of deeply uncertain socio-ecological tipping points, Environmental Modelling & Software, 92, 125-141, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.017.
[421] Quinn, JD, PM Reed, M Giuliani and A Castelletti (2017): Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems, Water Resources Research, 53, 7208-7233, DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020524.
[420] Ruckert, KL, G Shaffer, D Pollard, Y Guan, TE Wong, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration, PLoS One, 12, e0170052, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170052.
[419] Ruckert, KL, PC Oddo and K Keller (2017): Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay, PLoS One, 12, e0174666, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174666.
[418] Ruckert, KL, Y Guan, AM Bakker, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): The effects of time-varying observation errors on semi-empirical sea-level projections, Climatic Change, 140, 349-360, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1858-z.
[417] Tsai, CY, CE Forest and D Pollard (2017): Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 2017GL073443, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073443.
[416] Tschakert, P, J Barnett, N Ellis, C Lawrence, N Tuana, M New, C Elrick-Barr, R Pandit and D Pannell (2017): Climate change and loss, as if people mattered: values, places, and experiences, WIREs Climate Change, 8, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.476.
[415] Vezér, M, A Bakker, K Keller and N Tuana (2017): Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling, Climatic Change, 1-10, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9.
[414] Wong, TE and K Keller (2017): Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans, Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000607.
[413] Wong, TE, AM Bakker, K Ruckert, P Applegate, AB Slangen and K Keller (2017): BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections, Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 2741-2760, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017.
[412] Zipp, KY, DJ Lewis and B Provencher (2017): Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 81, 19-37, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.08.006.


[411] Applegate, PJ and K Keller (2016): Climate engineering (albedo modification) could slow, but probably would not stop, Greenland Ice Sheet melting, Climanosco,
[410] Bakker, AM, PJ Applegate and K Keller (2016): A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to temperature changes, Environmental Modelling & Software, 83, 27-35, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003.
[409] Camargo, GG and AR Kemanian (2016): Six crop models differ in their simulation of water uptake, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 220, 116-129, DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.013.
[408] Chang, W, M Haran, P Applegate and D Pollard (2016): Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 10, 2274-2302, DOI: 10.1214/16-AOAS979.
[407] Clayton, S, P Devine-Wright, J Swim, M Bonnes, L Steg, L Whitmarsh and A Carrico (2016): Expanding the role for psychology in addressing environmental challenges, The American Psychologist, 71, 199-215, DOI: 10.1037/a0039482.
[406] Colburn, JE (2016): Governing the Gradient: Clarity and Discretion at the Water's Edge, SSRN, DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2816484.
[405] Colburn, JE (2016): A Climate-Constrained NEPA, SSRN eLibrary, DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2729821.
[404] DeConto, RM and D Pollard (2016): Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591-597, DOI: 10.1038/nature17145.
[403] Diaz, D and K Keller (2016): A potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for economic analyses of climate policy, The American Economic Review, 106, 607-611, DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161103.
[402] Don, PK, JL Evans, F Chiaromonte and AM Kowaleski (2016): Mixture-Based Path Clustering for Synthesis of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Evolution, Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3301-3320, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1.
[401] Ernst, OR, AR Kemanian, SR Mazzilli, M Cadenazzi and S Dogliotti (2016): Depressed attainable wheat yields under continuous annual no-till agriculture suggest declining soil productivity, Field Crops Research, 186, 107-116, DOI: 10.1016/j.fcr.2015.11.005.
[400] Fisher-Vanden, K, Y Hu, G Jefferson, M Rock and M Toman (2016): Factors influencing energy intensity in four Chinese industries, European Journal of Sport Science, 37, DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.kfis.
[399] Fyfe, JC, GA Meehl, MH England, ME Mann, BD Santer, GM Flato, E Hawkins, NP Gillett, SP Xie, Y Kosaka and NC Swart (2016): Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2938.
[398] Garner, G, P Reed and K Keller (2016): Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs, Climatic Change, 134, 713-723, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3.
[397] Geiger, N and JK Swim (2016): Climate of silence: Pluralistic ignorance as a barrier to climate change discussion, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 47, 79-90, DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2016.05.002.
[396] Gleckler, PJ, PJ Durack, RJ Stouffer, GC Johnson and CE Forest (2016): Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades, Nature Climate Change, 6, 394–398, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2915.
[395] Grajal, A, JF Luebke, S Clayton, LD Kelly, BT Karazsia, CD Saunders, J Matiasek, R Stanoss, SR Goldman and ME Mann (2016): The relationship between affective connections to animals and proenvironmental behaviors, Conservation Biology, DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12780.
[394] Kowaleski, AM and JL Evans (2016): A Reformulation of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Theory Incorporating Energy Production along a Radial Trajectory, Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3569-3578, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0383.1.
[393] Lewandowsky, S, ME Mann, NJ Brown and H Friedman (2016): Science and the public: Debate, denial, and skepticism, Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 4, 537-553, DOI: 10.5964/jspp.v4i2.604.
[392] Mann, ME, BA Steinman, SK Miller, LM Frankcombe, MH England and AH Cheung (2016): Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 3459-3467, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068159.
[391] Mann, ME, S Rahmstorf, BA Steinman, M Tingley and SK Miller (2016): The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, DOI: 10.1038/srep19831.
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[389] Oschlies, A, H Held, D Keller, K Keller, N Mengis, M Quaas, W Rickels and H Schmidt (2016): Indicators and Metrics for the Assessment of Climate Engineering, Earth's Future, 2016EF000449, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000449.
[388] Pollard, D, W Chang, M Haran, P Applegate and R DeConto (2016): Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 9, 1697-1723, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016.
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[384] Simpson, M, JO Wallgrün, A Klippel, L Yang, G Garner, K Keller, D Oprean and S Bansal (2016): Immersive Analytics for Multi-objective Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) Models, 2016 ACM Companion on Interactive Surfaces and Spaces, DOI: 10.1145/3009939.3009955.
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[1] Winberry, JP, S Anandakrishnan and RB Alley (2009): Seismic observations of transient subglacial water-flow beneath MacAyeal Ice Stream, West Antarctica, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037730.