Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks

K. Y. Zipp, D. J. Lewis, and B. Provencher

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2017)

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.08.006

Abstract We use an econometrically-based landscape simulation to investigate the effect of conservation on the net change in local development – the amount of land directly protected from development minus the amount of development that may occur on neighboring unprotected private land in response to conservation. First, we use spatial-panel data from Wisconsin to estimate parcel-level subdivision probabilities and density expectations, controlling for the endogenous location of open space. Second, we use these subdivision probabilities and density expectations in a landscape simulation model. Our simulation results indicate that 57

keywords: Land use; Open-space conservation; Wildlife habitat; Micro-econometrics; Spatial simulation

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